A recent assessment by Aegir Insights provides a comprehensive overview of Poland’s offshore wind market, showcasing the country’s ambitions and potential within the rapidly evolving European offshore wind sector. Poland, while not yet having operational offshore wind farms, stands out due to its large-scale projects and a clear governmental commitment  of 18 GW offshore wind by 2040.

Aegir Insights highlights that Poland’s offshore wind market is poised for significant growth, as , the country already has allocated offshore wind sites  and support which at least on paper should be in line with Poland´s  ambitious offshore wind target . These projects are centered on three key areas: Oder Bank, the Central Baltic Sea, and Slupsk Bank, which are expected to offer favorable site conditions with good wind speeds and  suitable water depths for fixed-bottom.

“After kick-starting the offshore wind development in 2021 with the Offshore Wind Act coming into force and support for 5.9 GW being awarded, the Polish government already in 2023 increased the ambition from 11 to 18 GW in 2040.” said Signe Tellier Christensen, Market Analyst at Aegir Insights.

Strategic infrastructure development to support growth

The Polish government has already allocated 19 location permits, most of which are earmarked for commercial-scale offshore wind farms. This development is a critical step in building the country’s supply chain and expanding the port infrastructure, necessary to supply the future Polish offshore wind sector. With numerous sites in development, there is significant potential for the supply chain to secure long-term contracts, and port infrastructure is rapidly being expanded to meet future demand. Poland is developing several ports for both offshore construction and operations & maintenance (O&M), and investments in turbine and tower manufacturing facilities are expected by 2025-2026.

“The grand scale of the project pipeline supports investor confidence. Naturally, the upcoming support auction will need to deliver further progress, but it helps to have scheduled auctions for the entire pipeline within a near future.” added Signe Tellier Christensen.

One of the first major projects to undertake offshore construction in Poland is the 1.2 GW Baltic Power project, a joint venture between Orlen Neptun and Northland Power. The project, which is set to become operational by 2026, is expected to set the stage for the launch of additional projects from the first support phase awarded in 2021.

Poland’s offshore wind ambitions are not just limited to the first phase of projects that have secured a route to market, totaling to 5.9 GW. A significant pipeline of projects is under development, with the first auction scheduled for 2025. The government’s new amendment to the auction regulation, which include three maximum price tiers, aim to accommodate site differences and ensure sufficient competition among bidders. This framework is designed to support long-term growth in the offshore wind sector while minimizing cost implications for consumers.

A changing market landscape: M&A and investor opportunities

As most offshore wind sites in Poland already have been allocated to developers, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are expected to be the main avenue for new investors to enter the market. Poland’s two dominant players, Orlen and PGE, control a significant share of the market, which could limit partnership opportunities for new entrants.Aegir Insights notes that this could reduce competition in support auctions later on, nonetheless, it also opens up for economies-of-scale and valuable supply chain contracts. 

“As of now, all offshore wind sites have been allocated to developers. This leaves entrant opportunities for new developers and investors to M&A-routes. While Orlen and PGE are set to gain substantial market power, likely decreasing competition beyond Phase 1 projects, they could also ensure a more consistent long-term development pipeline if it serves their strategic interests and those of their partners.” said Signe Tellier Christensen.

In conclusion, while the Polish offshore wind market still is in its early stages, it is quickly gaining momentum with strong government support, a favorable regulatory framework, and a growing pipeline of large-scale projects. However, significant efforts from both the public and private sectors will be necessary to ensure the country meets its ambitious offshore wind targets and becomes a leader in Europe’s renewable energy future.

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