Aurora’s latest report analyses the state of Europe’s power grid and outlines measures to address issues such as grid congestion, connection delays, and restricted cross-border capacity, now increasingly evident in many parts of Europe.
(BERLIN) AURORA ENERGY RESEARCH— A new analysis by the global power market analytics firm Aurora Energy Research, finds that insufficient grid investment across Europe is delaying progress toward electrification. The report, “The State of European Power Grids: A Meta-Analysis”, calls for rapid grid expansion to tackle rising connection queues, increasing congestion and limited cross-border capacity. Achieving Net Zero by 2050 will require a 3-fold increase in solar and wind capacity and over 70% growth in power demand.
The findings come as the EU’s Grid Action Plan is rolled out, underscoring the need for improved coordination among DSOs, TSOs, and other value-chain players, greater visibility of equipment requirements, and more efficient grid use to support renewable integration, electrification, and Europe’s climate goals.
According to the report, congestion management costs in Europe reached €8.9 billion in 2024, equal to about 13% of annual grid investment, while 72 TWh of mainly renewable generation was curtailed due to bottlenecks, roughly equivalent to Austria’s annual electricity consumption. Aurora’s grid modelling for Great Britain, Spain, and Italy shows that renewable curtailment will double to 27 TWh by 2030.
Aurora assesses that most European grid connection queue management processes are no longer fit for purpose. Over 800 GW of solar and wind and 550 GW of battery projects are currently requesting grid access in the UK, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands—far more than current capacity. Meanwhile, requests from major power users in these countries already exceed 2024 peak demand.
Grid investment has increased by 47% over the past five years to about €70 billion annually but still falls 15–44% short of what’s required each year to meet Net Zero targets. Planned grid investments by system operators are below required levels, particularly when looking beyond 2030. By 2040, DSO investment commitments fall short of required levels by more than 66%, while planned TSO investments lag by 29% — highlighting the urgent need for long-term planning.
Overall, by 2050, Europe will need to deploy 576,000 km of transmission lines, 7.8 million km of distribution lines, and over 5 million transformer units, effectively rebuilding its grid within a single generation.
Gerhard Salge, Chief Technology Officer at Hitachi Energy, comments: “As Europe continues to electrify and boost power generation capacity, it is imperative to focus on the grids that will enable electricity delivery to growing demand loads such as heating, transport, data centers, and industry. As we integrate and interconnect, we must pay due attention to the capacity and complexity challenges to ensure a secure, affordable, and sustainable grid. The technologies are available; we now need to deploy them at speed and scale.”
Frederik Beelitz, Head of Advisory, Central Europe at Aurora Energy Research, comments: “Aurora’s grid modelling highlights that European power grids require significantly more investment in expansion and smarter utilisation to meet Net Zero targets. The forthcoming European Grids Package put forward by the European Commission presents an important opportunity to integrate power grids into European climate policy, in a way that has not been done before. Renewables targets cannot be achieved without a concerted political and regulatory focus on the transport infrastructure needed to get renewable energy to end users.”
