Germany’s Bundestag has adopted amendments to the Windenergie-auf-See-Gesetz (WindSeeG). While parts of the reform are welcomed by the offshore wind industry, one key decision is widely viewed as a strategic mistake: the continuation of 2.5 GW of offshore auctions in 2026 under the old auction design.
The sector had hoped for a decisive political signal to stabilize investment conditions during a period of global cost pressure, geopolitical uncertainty, and an increasingly fragile supply chain. That signal did not come.
Extended timelines welcome, but not a substitute for reform
The reform introduces longer realization periods and, importantly, confirms a 35-year operational lifetime for areas N-10.1 and N-10.2. This addresses a major concern raised by developers, who argued that six-month completion deadlines were unrealistic given supply chain bottlenecks. The extension to twelve months aligns with long-standing calls from industry associations and transmission system operators, who also highlighted the need for better coordination of wind farm commissioning and grid connection timelines.
These adjustments reduce pressure on developers and allow for more realistic planning – a step explicitly demanded in the joint declaration of BWO, BDEW, VDMA, Amprion, TenneT and 50Hertz. But the broader problem remains.
2026 will proceed under outdated rules – and that raises risks
Despite repeated warnings from the offshore wind industry, the Bundestag confirmed that the 2026 auction round will again allocate 2.5 GW under the old auction model – without the two-sided Contracts for Difference (CfDs) that other European markets have already adopted.
“Postponing the auctions would have been a central step toward stabilisation. The fact that this opportunity was not taken is a missed chanceˮ, says Stefan Thimm, Managing Director of the German Offshore Wind Foundation (BWO).
According to Thimm, the decision creates uncertainty, especially for the supply chain, at a moment when multiple manufacturers are struggling and component shortages threaten project delivery. A structural reform of the auction design – long demanded by industry – will now only come in 2027.
The risk is clear: Another auction round under the old design may lead to project failures. Without two-sided CfDs, developers continue to face volatile market exposure and financing challenges, undermining Germany’s competitiveness compared to the UK, France, Denmark or the Netherlands, where CfDs are already the standard instrument.
“Awarding another 2.5 GW under old rules increases risks. Without two-sided CfDs, we risk more failed auctions and a halt in value creationˮ, Thimm warns.
Industry insists: CfDs are essential for investor confidence
The joint industry paper outlines an urgent package of reforms needed to restore investment appetite and safeguard the offshore wind supply chain. Among the key demands are:
Introduction of two-sided CfDs as the central financing instrument, beginning with production-based CfDs in Q4 2026 and later evolving into production-independent CfDs.
Auction reform before the next tender round, to align with international best practice and reduce price and cost risk.
Optimisation of designated areas to maximise yield, reduce shading losses, and improve infrastructure integration.
More realistic project timelines, including confirmation of twelve-month realization periods.
Flexible, graduated penalties instead of automatic cancellation for delays outside developer control.
35-year permitting periods, essential for project economics.
These demands reflect the joint declaration by BWO, BDEW, VDMA and Germany’s transmission system operators Amprion, TenneT and 50Hertz, who collectively warn that delayed reform will hinder Germany’s ability to reach its legally enshrined offshore wind targets
A missed stabilisation moment – and the cost of delay
Germany’s energy transition depends heavily on offshore wind expansion. The cost escalation of 2023–2025 has shown that market liberalisation without risk-sharing mechanisms is no longer viable in a capital-intensive sector competing in a global race. The Bundestag’s decision improves certain procedural aspects, but by keeping the 2026 auction schedule unchanged and postponing structural redesign until 2027, a critical opportunity to send a stabilising signal to investors has been lost.
For Germany to regain momentum, the coming year must be used to finalise CfD-based auction design and implement optimisation measures across all offshore zones.
Until then, uncertainty remains – for developers, for suppliers, and for the broader value chain that underpins Europe’s offshore wind leadership.
