The expansion of wind power continues. However, no new investment decisions were made during the second quarter of 2024, according to the Swedish Wind Energy Association’s latest statistics and forecast for wind power expansion.
The pace of expansion is slowing slightly compared to the recent record years. Our forecasts show that about 1,000 MW per year will be expanded until 2026. For the first time in a year and a half, no new investment decisions were made during the last quarter.
„This is the first time since the energy crisis of 2022 that no new investment decisions have been taken in a quarter. It has certainly happened before that we had zero quarters, but then we had a historically high expansion rate and construction costs were lower. We are getting signals that the companies are more cautious and that it is above all the political uncertainty in Sweden that has increased” – Erik Almqvist, Head of Grid and Electricity Market, Swedish Wind Energy Association
An investment decision in a licensed wind power project in 2024 will result in new electricity production within two to four years and may be operational in the second half of the 2020s. Postponing investment decisions that could have been made this year reduces the possibility of meeting the industry’s increased demand by 2030.
A municipal endorsement or an early ‘yes’ from the Swedish Armed Forces in 2024 will enable wind power projects that can provide new electricity generation within six to ten years and could be operational in the first half of the 2030s. If the municipality vetoes or the Defence Forces say no, the possibility of meeting industrial demand by 2035 is reduced.
The transition in the industrial and transport sectors requires electricity generation to be expanded on a large scale and in line with demand. The government has set a target for the electricity system to be able to supply at least 300 TWh by 2045. However, the need for twice as much electricity generation is based on the assumption that the expansion of electricity generation can meet increased consumption already by the early 2030s. SKGS’s updated report shows that industry will need 88 TWh more electricity in 2035 than today. It is therefore important that the government acts quickly to improve the investment climate for the electricity production that may be added in the next 10 years.
About the statistics and the forecast
Swedish Wind Energy publishes quarterly statistics and forecasts on the expansion of wind power in Sweden. The statistics are based on data from turbine suppliers and other market participants. The short-term forecast is based on investment decisions and an assessment of projects that may come into being, as well as new projects that are in the authorisation process.
No new wind turbines were ordered in the second quarter of 2024. The Swedish Wind Energy Association’s forecast shows that wind power will reach a total installed capacity of 19,515 MW and an expected normal annual production of 55 TWh by the end of 2026.
Source: Swedish Wind Energy Association
