The heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group and World Trade Organization have warned that the war in the Middle East is placing substantial and uneven strain on global energy supplies, food security and economic activity. The four issued a joint statement on 29 May, following a meeting of a high-level coordination group established in April to respond to the conflict’s energy, trade and economic impacts.
The statement said the effects are falling hardest on the most vulnerable countries, through higher fuel and fertiliser prices, greater uncertainty and risks to jobs. Rising fertiliser costs are a particular concern as many countries enter the planting season. At the same time, global oil inventories are being drawn down at a record pace after the major loss of supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
The institutions cautioned that if shipping flows do not return to normal, continued rapid depletion of oil stocks ahead of peak summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere would present increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions and broader economic resilience. They pledged to monitor fertiliser supply chains and energy developments closely, track government policy responses, and coordinate support for the countries most affected.
For the Baltic Sea region, the warning underlines a familiar lesson: exposure to imported fossil fuels remains the main source of price and security risk. It strengthens the case that regional governments have made repeatedly since 2022 — that domestic renewable generation, interconnection and grid resilience are as much a security investment as an economic one.
